![]() There are approximately 23 million acres (9.3 million ha) of forested land in Montana, with the majority publicly owned and in the western part of the state.īACKGROUND Forest ownership, communities, and distribution in Montana There may be a reduction in the amount of carbon stored in forests. įorest responses to climate change may be non-linear and complex due to feedbacks. Rising temperatures are likely to increase bark beetle survival, but climate-induced changes to other insects and forest pathogens are more varied and less certain. Īn increase in fire risk (i.e., probability of occurrence)-including an increase in size and possible frequency and/or severity (i.e., tree mortality)-is expected in the coming century as a result of a) prolonged fire seasons due to increased temperatures, and b) increased fuel loads from past fire suppression. ![]() ĭirect effects of climate change on trees and forests, such as warmer, wetter conditions improving forest productivity or warmer, drier conditions increasing tree mortality, will be secondary to the impacts of altered forest disturbance regimes, such as changes in forest fire behavior and area burned. The speed and magnitude of climate change may mean that increased forest mortality and contractions in forest distributions will outpace any gains in forest growth and productivity over the long run, leading to a net loss of forested area in Montana. ĭirect effects of climate change on individual trees will be driven by temperature in energy-limited forests and moisture in water-limited forests. Increased temperatures will have positive or negative effects on individual trees and forest-wide processes, depending on local site and stand conditions, but impacts from increased extreme heat will be negative. Forest managers also have an important role to play in climate change mitigation via efforts to increase forest carbon storage. Forest managers throughout Montana are key players in maintaining the health of our forests and, ultimately, forest managers will need to consider specific adaptation actions in response to current and potential climate changes. The summary of potential climate influences on forest resources provided here are, in part, focused on assisting managers and policy makers develop management responses. Additionally, when discussing drought in this chapter, we are referring to ecological drought as defined in the Drought sidebar of the Climate chapter. It is important to note that any potential effects will be spatially and temporally variable, depending on current forest conditions, local site characteristics, environmental influences, and annual and decadal patterns of climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, which can drive regional weather and climate conditions. In this chapter, we interpret how past and projected shifts in climate-as described in the Climate chapter-may influence Montana forests. CHAPTER 4 FORESTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN MONTANAĪlisa A.
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